Can Markets Limit Erdogan’s Authoritarian Consolidation?

Why economic turmoil alone won’t stop Erdoğan’s authoritarian consolidation—and what actually could.

Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think Türkiye’s economic situation—or market forces in general—ranks among the top five factors that could halt Erdoğan’s authoritarian consolidation. That’s not to say the economy is thriving—far from it. But the assumption that economic hardship alone will force the government to change course is deeply flawed.

Let’s unpack why this assumption is misleading and explore the real factors that could shift the government’s trajectory.